Braves rumors: Sonny Gray problem, Nola offer, another missed opportunity.

Why Sonny Gray signing with the Braves is no guarantee. What did Atlanta actually offer Aaron Nola? And another starter may be off the board soon.

Braves rumors: Another pitcher is off the board for Atlanta.

While the Atlanta Braves have been linked to top-flight starting pitchers like Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, there are other, less-expensive players who could be a better fit for Alex Anthopoulos and Co. Kenta Maeda, also a former Twin himself, would serve as an immediate upgrade in the Braves rotation. However, Atlanta has yet to show much interest in the former Cy Young runner-up.

Maeda has been most connected to the Detroit Tigers. Detroit needs to replace Eduardo Rodriguez in their own rotation, and Maeda could be a far cheaper option than re-signing E-Rod. If Scott Harris is willing to overpay for Maeda on a multiyear deal, he could steal him from multiple interested suitors as well as the Twins.

It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Maeda, of course. He missed all of the 2022 season with an injury and had a 4.23 ERA for the Twins in 2023. In fact, he hasn’t pitched like a frontline starting pitcher since 2020, when he led the Minnesota rotation in a shortened season.

While talks with the Tigers have intensified, Minnesota is also interested in a reunion. The Braves, to this point, have yet to be mentioned. The majority of the frontline starting pitcher market seems to be awaiting the decision of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was posted last Monday and is one of the best available starting pitchers in the world.

Braves Rumors: What did Atlanta offer Aaron Nola, and what was their competition?

The Atlanta Braves were reportedly one of several teams interested in Aaron Nola, per the Philadelphia Inquirer.

“The Braves, off back-to-back 100-win seasons and divisional-round ousters by the Phillies, made a six-year, $162 million offer to Nola out of the chute, a source said Sunday…It was also neither the Braves’ final offer nor the only one that Nola received. The deep-pocketed — and pitching-starving — Dodgers put a finger on the scale at $165 million, according to a source,” Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

The Braves were unwilling to go to seven years in their initial offer, which likely cost them a real chance at Nola. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Phillies also made known offers to the ace. With the Braves offer in hand — which would have paid Nola about $27 million AAV — he had plenty of ammo to go back to the negotiating table with Dave Dombrowski, which ultimately worked out in his favor.

“Talks picked up late last week. Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done. The Phillies agreed, provided the contract was lengthened to seven years to reduce the average annual value to less than $25 million for luxury-tax purposes,” Lauber wrote.

This is common from agents of star athletes. Essentially, the Braves were used by Nola and his representation to up the anté, of sorts. Philadelphia is where Nola always wanted to end up.

Braves Rumors: Sonny Gray may not sign in Atlanta after all

Sonny Gray was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2023, and one of the best starting pitchers available on the free-agent market. What’s even better is that his age makes Gray affordable on a deal far shorter than the likes of Aaron Nola, who signed a seven-year deal with the Phillies earlier this offseason.

Gray has made it clear that winning is his primary objective. The Braves are a known suitor, and seem likely to make an offer in the coming days, especially once Yoshinobu Yamamoto helps set the pitching market. If the Braves can get Gray for lower than $23 million AAV, that’s a win for the organization and Alex Anthopoulos. With Max Fried and Charlie Morton coming off the books after 2024, Atlanta will need starters they can rely on.

Atlanta will be well over the luxury tax if they sign Gray, however, which is a dilemma for them moving forward. David O’Brien explained the Braves looming problem after they signed Reynaldo Lopez.

“However, even if the Braves signed Gray to a contract with an average annual value of only about $22 million, it would ensure the team moves well above MLB’s luxury-tax threshold ($237 million) for the second consecutive year and, unless they traded a significant salary, it would also push them more than $20 million above the threshold. That would trigger an additional 12 percent surcharge on top of the 30 percent penalty they’d already owe,” O’Brien wrote.

While money shouldn’t really be an object to Atlanta improving its roster, especially coming off a record-breaking regular season, it’s something every owner takes into consideration before signing off on such a move. This is why Gray signing with the Braves is far from a guarantee.