BYU coach Kalani Sitake isn’t giving his players coachspeak about the 12-team College Football Playoff and the door it has opened for the once-independent program.
“These kids aren’t dumb,” said Sitake, whose Cougars are in their second year in the Big 12 but are in the first of the expanded playoff era.
It has been too difficult for too long as an independent to get a real shot at competing for the national title, he said, something the new 12-team format guarantees for the five highest-ranked conference champions.
“In order to get to the playoff in the past, you’d have to play perfect, literally perfect, and style points and all that stuff,” he said. “And even then, it’s not a guarantee that you’re in. I mean, ask Florida State and others, right?”
Undefeated BYU is trending in the right direction, while Ole Miss took a significant step back with its home loss to Kentucky. Both teams are on the bubble this week.
Below is a snapshot of what the College Football Playoff selection committee might do today through five weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee’s projected top 12 for this week — plus a look at eight more teams currently on the bubble and a ranking of the five best schools from the Group of 5.
No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide moved into the top spot after their win against Georgia on Saturday, and earn the No. 1 seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Alabama also being the selection committee’s No. 1 team on Selection Day. Alabama enters October with the best résumé in college football. The average playoff contender would have a 29% chance to start 4-0 against the Crimson Tide’s schedule.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second highest-ranked conference champion behind Alabama. Ohio State currently has the third-best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (16.8%), trailing only Texas and Alabama. Nobody, though, has a better chance to earn a bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champs than the Buckeyes (51.6%).
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champions and the third-highest ranked conference champion. According to ESPN Research, Miami has the third-best chance in the country to earn a first-round bye (34.1%). The Canes also have the highest chance to win the ACC (36%) followed by Clemson (27.9%).
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats: In spite of the head-to-head loss to BYU, K-State has earned this spot as the projected Big 12 champion this week. The Wildcats have strong wins over Tulane, Arizona and Oklahoma State, but one of the biggest differences between the two is at quarterback, where K-State’s Avery Johnson accounted for five touchdowns that will play well in the committee room. Three of the Wildcats’ next four games are on the road, though, starting Saturday against an improving Colorado team.
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