It’s safe to say the Minnesota Twins did NOT win the Tyler Mahle trade.

Needing veteran starters and facing a glut of infield prospects, the Twins sent prospect pitcher Steven Hajjar and infielders Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer to the Cincinnati Reds for Mahle at the 2022 trade deadline.

But the righty made only two full starts down the stretch in Minnesota, being forced out early of two consecutive starts before being shut down for the rest of the season with shoulder inflammation.

And then, somehow, it got even worse.

Mahle pitched only 25.2 innings for Minnesota in 2023 before leaving with an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season and imperiling his 2024 availability.

Meanwhile, both Steer and Encarnacion-Strand made the majors and played well, with Steer a likely NL Rookie of the Year top-five finisher after debuting late in 2022 and hitting 23 homers on a .271/.356/.464 slash line in 2023, with Encarnacion-Strand adding 63 games and 13 homers.

So, why would Atlanta want to sign Mahle to a multi-year deal?

It’s about getting some value on a multi-year deal

In 2021, at full health, Mahle led all of baseball with 33 starts and had a 3.75 ERA with 210 strikeouts in 180 innings for Cincinnati, going 13-6.

And I think he was actually even better than that – Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of the majors, frequently called “Great American Small Park” due to the dimensions. It’s only 325 down the lines, 370-ft power alleys, and 404 feet to dead center, resulting in it consistently being named the most hitter-friendly field in all of Major League Baseball per Statcast.

On the road in 2021, Tyler Mahle was 8-2 with a 2.30 ERA in eighteen starts, allowing opposing hitters a .204/.280/.298 slash line and only five homers in 409 plate appearances.

(By contrast, at home he went 5-4 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 starts, allowing 19 homers and a .270/.344/.511 line).

We’ve talked about Atlanta needing a frontline starter – that road performance IS frontline-starter quality.

And prior to Mahle going on the IL this season (and yes it’s a small sample size), he had a 3.16 ERA in his first 25.2 innings, striking out 9.8 per nine innings with less than two walks per nine.

This isn’t a signing with some risk, but Atlanta’s done this before

The money wouldn’t be huge, but there IS risk – Tommy John surgery isn’t an exact science. Compounding things are that he already had the surgery back in May and has been rehabbing under a different organization’s medical staff.

But there’s a few reasons why that might not be super concerning to Atlanta.

The first is that the actual surgeon Mahle used – Dr. Keith Meister in Dallas – is the same surgeon that Atlanta uses. He performed Blake Burkhalter’s Tommy John surgery earlier this season and Tyler Matzek’s last October, among others. Mahle going to the same surgeon that Atlanta’s players use would undoubtedly give them some reassurances.

Additionally, Atlanta’s familiar with this multi-year contract situation – it’s what they did with Kirby Yates. The 36 year-old reliever had Tommy John surgery in May of 2021, his 2nd procedure of his career. (It’s known that he had it done in Texas, but we can’t find confirmation if it was actually Dr. Meister or a different surgeon).

Yates signed a two-year deal with Atlanta worth $8.25M in November of 2021. He earned a $1M base salary in 2022, while rehabbing, and $6M this season. Atlanta holds a $5.75M club option on him for 2024 with a $1.25M buyout.

Of particular note also is that Matzek  signed a similar contract to Yates last November, making $1.2M in 2023 and $1.9M in 2024 with a 2025 club option for $5.5M; the lack of a buyout means that Atlanta’s total guarantees are only $3.1M to Matzek, but he can earn up to $8.6M if the option is picked up.

Yates returned for seven innings late in 2022 and then pitched in 61 contests for Atlanta this season, striking out 80 batters in 60.1 innings. He put up a 3.28 ERA and 7-2 record, logging five saves.

And Matzek, who was facing live hitters in September but did not go out for rehab appearances, is supposedly on track to be full-go this February for spring training.

So what’s a realistic contract for Tyler Mahle look like?

Using Fangraphs WAR and similar deals to players in similar situations (Noah Syndergaard’s 2022 deal was a help here), a reasonable projection should come out to something around $20M total. Assume a lower value in year one, with an escalator in year two and a club option for year three, you could be looking at all in two years, $20M, with a $2M salary in 2024, an $16M in year two, and a $2M buyout on a $20M club option for year three.

But let’s not forget something: Alex Anthopoulos takes a multi-year view of this roster, and that’s what this deal would be.

This signing would give you some certainty about the rotation in 2025 – we’ve speculated that Max Fried could potentially walk after 2024, but knowing now that you could have Kyle Wright and Tyler Mahle both returning to the rotation in 2025 (with Mahle theoretically able to get the ball a bit in minor league/rehab stints late in 2024) should help know that the floor is set with middle-of-the-rotation options behind Spencer Strider, as well as make it easier to consider a shorter, higher AAV deal for a pitcher for 2024 if Charlie Morton doesn’t return (or even if he does, honestly).